Texas’ Senate Race Between James Talarico and Ken Paxton May Be Shaped by Turnout, Population Growth and Millions of New Texas Residents
As the airwaves and publications are now being filled with campaign slogans, strategies, attacks, and rhetoric heading toward November’s election, the contest for the state’s remaining Senate seat is drawing plenty of attention on many levels, as it should, given what may be a significant change from the usual for Texas congressional representation if Representative Talarico were to emerge victorious in November. If Attorney General Paxton were the winner, it might suggest Texas politics as usual, given his questionable conduct and what has been labeled as “excess baggage.”
As we delve into this highly contested matchup, many watching are wondering which candidate voter turnout will favor — Democrats or Republicans. Voter turnout can be the subject of many conversations and is influenced by various factors, including election competitiveness and candidate appeal.
Texas Adds Millions of New Residents
Historical data indicate that primary elections typically have lower turnout rates than general elections. However, turnout can vary depending on factors such as voter engagement efforts, changes in voting laws and procedures, and overall interest in the candidates and issues on the ballot. There remains the additional factor of a surge in population growth. Texas has gained more than 2.5 million new residents between 2020 and 2025, roughly the entire population of the state of New Mexico, reshaping the electorate and injecting “new uncertainty into this year’s marquee Senate race.”
The Unknown Impact of New Voters
Some pundits have suggested that Republican Ken Paxton may have an advantage heading into November against Democrat James Talarico. However, the influx of new arrivals, along with fading Latino support for Trump and booming exurban counties, has scrambled the math in typically red Texas. According to reports, the population has declined in 108 Texas counties, primarily in rural areas. Dallas has experienced the largest numeric population loss, along with several border counties. The new arrivals are moving in from elsewhere in the U.S. and from abroad.
The big unknown is which party these new arrivals will favor. Newcomers tend to be less tied to Texas’ longstanding political patterns, which could give Democrats more persuadable voters than they previously had.
Campaign Attacks and Political Messaging
Paxton’s foibles are under closer scrutiny, causing some to question his viability, as comments have surfaced from what are believed to be D.C. insiders suggesting “there’s an unhappiness from the public,” as well as a deeper moral critique. Allies have alleged, falsely, that Talarico is a vegan, as is his girlfriend. They have reportedly claimed, falsely, that he wants to ban barbecue. Some Republican insiders are reportedly questioning the spending of $20 million against the Democratic nominee.
The ‘Real Beef’
The real beef is not whether Talarico eats it. Rather, the underlying issue appears to be obscured. The Democratic nominee countered: “They see threats where everyone else just sees lunch.”
Remember — Your Vote Counts! If it didn’t count, why is there such a BIG effort to stop you from using it?
Read Next: How Red is Texas? Voter Turnout Could Decide Talarico-Paxton Race
