Talarico Holds Narrow Lead As General Election Begins
Just days after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff for U.S. Senate, a new poll shows Democrat James Talarico narrowly leading Paxton in a possible November matchup.
The Texas Public Opinion Research poll found Talarico ahead of Paxton 47% to 44% among likely general election voters. The result remains within the survey’s margin of error, meaning the race is still statistically close. The poll was conducted May 27 and May 28 among 1,670 likely Texas voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Talarico is seeking to become the first Democrat to hold the Texas U.S. Senate seat since Bob Krueger in 1993. Paxton, meanwhile, is working to keep the seat under Republican control after defeating Cornyn in the May 26 runoff.
The poll found Talarico drawing support from 72% of moderates and 64% of independents, two groups that could be central to the general election outcome in November.
Paxton’s challenge, according to the survey, is not only consolidating Republican voters but also winning over those who supported Cornyn in the runoff. Among Cornyn runoff voters, 44% said they would back Paxton in November, while 30% said they would support Talarico. Another 23% were undecided or said they would not vote.
Paxton’s Record Remains A Factor For Some GOP Voters
Among GOP runoff voters who said they planned to support Talarico, 51% cited Paxton’s criminality or corruption as their main reason, according to the poll.
Paxton was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015, though the case was dismissed in March 2024. He was also impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and later acquitted by the Texas Senate.
The poll found that only 10% of those crossover voters gave a positive reason for backing Talarico. Another 10% described themselves as reluctant voters, saying they supported Talarico because they did not see Paxton as an acceptable choice. Others cited Paxton’s alignment with Donald Trump or broader frustration with the Republican Party.
Also Read: Texas Turned Red in 1961. Six Decades Later the Paxton-Talarico Race Has National Attention
Talarico Polls Higher In Favorability
The survey found Talarico with higher favorability than Paxton or Trump among Texas voters tested in the poll. According to the results, 47% of Texans viewed Talarico favorably, while 38% viewed Paxton favorably. Trump’s approval stood at 48%.
The findings give Democrats an early sign of competitiveness in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in more than three decades. Still, the narrow margin shows that the race remains close and likely to shift as both campaigns define their messages for the general election.
Affordability Leads Voter Concerns In Texas
The poll also found that affordability and the cost of living were the top concerns for Texas voters, with 23% naming it as their main issue. That was more than double any other issue listed in the survey.
Democracy and voting rights followed at 11%, immigration at 10%, health care and access at 9%, and economic growth and job creation at 7%.
With Paxton coming out of a bruising Republican runoff and Talarico looking to build a statewide Democratic coalition, the early poll gives both campaigns a clear picture of the terrain ahead. The race is close, the electorate is unsettled, and Texas voters are making clear that kitchen table issues remain at the front of the line.
