NEED TO KNOWS
• Cyber Monday spending is projected to hit $14.2 billion, breaking records despite economic pressure.
• Black Friday sales jumped 9.1 percent, hitting $11.8 billion online.
• Shoppers are leaning heavily on buy now, pay later, expected to fuel $20.2 billion in holiday spending.
• Smartphones now dominate, projected to account for 58 percent of all online holiday purchases this season.
Online Spending Expected to Surge to $16 Million per Minute Tonight
Cyber Monday spending records are expected to break this year as U.S. shoppers close out the post-Thanksgiving buying marathon with some of the steepest discounts of the season. Even with economic uncertainty lingering, millions of people are expected to stay glued to phones and laptops as retailers push “last call” deals.
Online shopping is already a staple of daily life, and that habit intensifies as the holidays approach. Analysts expect consumers to drive record Cyber Monday spending in 2025. Adobe Analytics projects $14.2 billion in online purchases Monday, a 6.3 percent jump from last year. Spending is expected to spike between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. local time, when Adobe estimates shoppers will push $16 million through digital carts every minute nationwide.
The Cyber Week momentum follows a Black Friday that already shattered expectations. U.S. shoppers spent a record $11.8 billion online for Black Friday this year, marking a 9.1 percent increase from 2024. Another $6.4 billion was spent on Thanksgiving Day, and a second $11.8 billion flowed in over the weekend, all exceeding Adobe’s forecasts. Taken together, the five-day shopping window underscores how willing shoppers still are to spend for the holidays.
“Cyber Week is off to a strong start,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. “Discounts are set to remain elevated through Cyber Monday, which we expect will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season and year.”
Electronics and apparel are expected to reach the steepest markdowns Monday, with average prices falling 30 percent and 26 percent. Toys are projected to hit 27 percent off. Salesforce, which tracks online activity across a broader range of retailers including grocers, estimates Cyber Monday sales will reach $13.4 billion in the U.S. and $53.7 billion globally.
Inflation and higher retail prices may help push overall sales numbers into new territory, but analysts warn that many shoppers may actually be buying fewer total items. Households stretched thin are approaching the holiday season with more precision than previous years, pacing their purchases across multiple days of deals and zeroing in on a few high-value gifts.
Economic anxiety continues to hover in the background. Households and businesses are still bracing for the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on foreign imports, while workers across sectors face concerns about layoffs and the lingering effects of the 43-day government shutdown earlier this year.
The National Retail Federation estimates U.S. shoppers will spend more than $1 trillion this November and December for the first time, though overall growth is slowing. Holiday spending is projected to rise 3.7 to 4.2 percent year-over-year, compared to 4.3 percent last year.
At the same time, credit card debt and delinquencies on short-term loans continue to rise. More consumers are turning to buy now, pay later programs to manage holiday spending on gifts, décor, and electronics. Adobe projects that these loans will drive $20.2 billion in online purchases this season, an 11 percent increase from last year. Cyber Monday alone is expected to break the $1 billion mark in buy now, pay later transactions, driven largely by mobile purchases.
Mobile devices now dominate online shopping behavior. Adobe expects smartphones and other handheld devices to make up 58 percent of holiday online spending this season. Just five years ago, most online purchases were made on desktop computers.
AI-powered shopping tools are also reshaping buying patterns. Salesforce estimates digital assistants and algorithmic recommendations contributed to $14.2 billion in global Black Friday purchases out of $79 billion spent worldwide.
Among the season’s standout items are gaming consoles like the Nintendo Switch 2, collectible toys like Labubu Dolls, and next-generation smartphones including the iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10, and Samsung Galaxy S25.
Cyber Monday first emerged in 2005, when the National Retail Federation coined the term to promote online shopping right after Thanksgiving. Two decades later, the single day has expanded into a full shopping arc, with retailers stretching deals across an entire week to maximize the spending surge.
