How Red is Texas? Voter Turnout Could Decide Talarico-Paxton Race

With the Primary Season Over, Attention Now Turns to Turnout and the November Senate Election

By the calendar, we have closed the month of May 2026 and decided the runoff races for offices on the midterm ballots. Among those upcoming midterm contests is the race for the Texas seat in the U.S. Senate between James Talarico and Ken Paxton.

Candidate Talarico, a former state representative, won the Democratic nomination during the March primary, while Attorney General Ken Paxton was forced into a runoff with John Cornyn, the sitting U.S. senator. The race to the midterm election began as soon as polls closed once it became clear that Paxton had defeated the four-term senator and secured the Republican nomination.

Both campaigns unleashed their attacks that night, with Talarico calling Paxton “corrupt” and Paxton calling Talarico “radical.”

Related: Barack Obama Joins James Talarico And Gina Hinojosa For Tacos In Austin

Two Candidates, Two Different Messages

Let’s take a look at how these candidates came to face each other and become contenders for one of the state’s two Senate seats.

Talarico is a four-term state representative from Central Texas who grew up in Austin. A former educator, he taught sixth-grade language arts at Rhodes Middle School in the San Antonio ISD system and is now a Presbyterian minister.

Paxton is the state’s attorney general and has held the office for three terms. Before that, he served in the Texas House of Representatives until challenging Joe Straus for the Speaker’s position in 2011, a bid he lost. He also spent time serving in the Texas Senate.

Talarico’s campaign has focused on his legislative experience and what he describes as “a culture of corruption” that he says Paxton personifies.

Paxton enters the race carrying years of political and legal controversy, including fraud allegations, whistleblower complaints, a securities indictment filed in 2015 that was dismissed in 2025, impeachment proceedings initiated by the Texas House, and eventual acquittal by the Texas Senate. He also filed a lawsuit in 2020 challenging election results in four battleground states, a case later dismissed by the U.S. Supreme Court for lack of standing.

Why Turnout May Decide the Election

Going forward, Talarico has acknowledged the challenges he faces in energizing voters in urban counties while making up for expected losses in many rural and conservative areas of Texas.

He has stressed that “there’s no way to win Texas without Bexar County,” adding that his campaign plans to continue registering voters, block walking, phone banking, and increasing turnout efforts throughout San Antonio and Bexar County. Talarico has also said he would work to hold ICE agents accountable.

Paxton, meanwhile, has emphasized focusing on the general election campaign and consolidating Republican support heading into November.

As with all elections, voter turnout may ultimately prove to be the deciding factor. The 2026 midterm election will be no different.

Use Your Voice. Vote.

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Gordon Benjamin
Gordon Benjaminhttps://saobserver.com
Gordon Benjamin is a Community Activist, Omega Psi Phi Fraternity Member and Voter’s Rights advocate who is passionate about democracy.

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