TOSS-UP RACE: New Beacon Research Poll Shows Gubernatorial Race is Within the Margin of Error As Early Voting Began
This is the second A-rated October poll to show a statistical tie as O’Rourke once again carries Independents at a time when his 100,000 volunteers position him to win the ground game
A new poll by Beacon Research calls the gubernatorial race a “toss-up” that is well within the margin of error as Beto O’Rourke wins Independents by six points. This is the second October poll to show a statistical tie with both pollsters receiving A-ratings from FiveThirtyEight.
Released on the eve of Early Voting, today’s Beacon Research poll of more than 1,200 registered voters finds O’Rourke surging to within two points (46-48) of Greg Abbott among likely voters. It also finds a one-point race (47-48) among voters who are “most motivated to vote,” with a margin of error that is nearly 3 percent. While Independents favored O’Rourke 47-41, voters listed abortion and gun violence as two of the most important issues facing the state.
“Voters all across this state are ready to turn the page on Greg Abbott’s failures and vote for change after eight years of him putting his extreme agenda over the people of Texas,” said O’Rourke.“ With over 100,000 volunteers, we have the largest on-the-ground organizing program in Texas history that is committed to turning out the new, infrequent and overlooked voters who will be the margin of victory on the eighth of November.”
The toss-up poll follows an Oct. 12 poll by Marist that was also within the margin of error. While statistically tied overall, the mid-October poll showed O’Rourke with a 10-point lead over Abbott among Independents.
KEY BACKGROUND
Democrats have been strategizing plans to turn Texas blue for years, pinning hopes on quickly growing young and Latino populations in the state, with O’Rourke’s 2.6 percentage point loss against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) fueling high hopes for Democrats heading into the 2020 election. But the party fell well short of expectations two years ago—former President Donald Trump comfortably carried the state by nearly six points and the GOP maintained control of the Texas legislature. Abbott is hoping favorable trends for the GOP nationally in this year’s midterms, along with recent Republican gains among Latino voters, will propel him. The governor has made border security the signature issue of his campaign, repeatedly blaming President Joe Biden for an influx of immigrants. Abbott also notably started a busing program to drop off undocumented immigrants in Democratic-leaning cities, which the White House called a “publicity stunt.” O’Rourke’s campaign has launched repeated cries out against the governor on gun issues, claiming he did not take enough action after a massacre left 19 children and two teachers dead in Uvalde in May. Polls have repeatedly suggested Texas voters want to see more action on gun control.
