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Friday, March 6, 2026

What’s at Stake if Congress Can’t Agree on Obamacare Funding


AT A GLANCE
  • Obamacare premiums are projected to rise up to 30% next year in states using the federal marketplace.
  • States managing their own marketplaces will see smaller increases, averaging 17%.
  • Without a bipartisan deal, tax credits could expire, leading to premium hikes of over 100%.
  • The government shutdown, now in its 28th day, stems from clashes over restoring pandemic-era subsidies and health care funding.

The Cost Of Health Care Under Obamacare, Or The Affordable Care Act, Is At The Center Of The Current Government Shutdown

Americans who buy insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace are getting a grim surprise: a steep rise in premiums next year if the Trump administration and Congress fail to reach an agreement before the year ends.

The ongoing government shutdown, now stretching past four weeks, centers on whether the Trump administration will restore health care funding cuts and extend tax credits that have helped millions afford coverage since the pandemic.

Democrats are demanding those benefits be made permanent, while the White House and Republican-controlled Congress continue to reject the proposal.

According to a new analysis by the nonpartisan health policy group KFF, premiums for enrollees in the 30 states using the federally managed marketplace will jump an average of 30%. Those in state-run exchanges will see increases closer to 17%. These figures do not include subsidies or tax credits, the very lifeline now caught in political crossfire.

If those credits expire, monthly premium payments could soar by 114%, effectively doubling what many Americans currently pay.

Mehmet Oz, Administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services speaks in the Oval Office of the White House. (Alex Brandon/AP)
Mehmet Oz, Administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services speaks in the Oval Office of the White House. (Alex Brandon/AP)

President Donald Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One, repeated his long-standing criticism of the law, calling it “a disaster.” He insisted Republicans could work with Democrats to replace it with “something much better,” while adding that insurance companies should “make money — but not the kind of money that they’re making.”

Trump’s administration has long sought to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, yet Republicans have failed to produce a comprehensive replacement plan. Despite its flaws, experts say Obamacare remains the most significant expansion of U.S. health coverage in decades. Especially for Black Americans and other communities historically shut out of the insurance system.

With negotiations stalled, millions of families now face the prospect of skyrocketing health costs — a familiar crisis in America’s never-ending debate over who deserves affordable care.

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