“2024 Election Polls Show Biden and Trump in Dead Heat, Prompting Mixed Democratic Reactions”
As the 2024 election looms just 14 months away, recent polls indicate that former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden are in a tight race, leaving Democrats with a range of emotions. Some are deeply concerned about the neck-and-neck competition, while officials from the Biden campaign and their allies dismiss these early polls as inconclusive.
However, one consensus among Democratic strategists emerges: even in the face of an insurrection investigation and a slew of criminal charges, it appears unlikely that Trump, the frontrunner in the Republican primary, can be prevented from making a White House comeback.
“Despite facing 91 felony charges pending trial, Trump is nearly on par with the presidency,” commented Dan Pfeiffer, a former advisor to President Barack Obama. He further emphasized that due to the Electoral College and the polarization of American politics, every presidential election hinges on a relatively small number of voters, a fact that cannot be underestimated.
According to a recent CNN poll released on Thursday, Trump leads Biden by just 1 point, with 47% supporting Trump and 46% supporting Biden. A Wall Street Journal survey published on September 3rd found both candidates tied at 46%. A late July New York Times/Siena College poll also showed Biden and Trump deadlocked at 43% each. Notably, Trump is polling stronger against Biden now than at any point in 2020 when he trailed by as much as 10 points and never came within 3 points in the FiveThirtyEight average.
Pfeiffer noted that these close poll results are a source of “moderate worry,” drawing from the New York Times poll that indicates Trump is retaining more of his 2020 voters than Biden.
Two key factors appear to be influencing this tight race. First, there is some apprehension within Biden’s base. While 95% of self-identified Democrats voted for Biden in 2020, the CNN poll shows that he’s winning only 87% of Democrats. The New York Times poll also reveals that Biden is securing the support of 87% of his 2020 voters, whereas Trump is retaining 91% of his. Secondly, the polls suggest that Biden is underperforming with nonwhite Americans, particularly Black and Latino voters. After winning 92% of Black voters in 2020, Biden is now receiving just 71% of their support, according to the Times poll.
