Former Texas Democratic Party Executive Director Jamarr Brown Cautioned Against Reading Too Much Into the Recent Poll, Given the “Very Small” Sample of Unlikely Voters
A new poll suggests momentum in the Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary has shifted, with U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett now trailing State Rep. James Talarico—though her base of support among Black voters remains strong.
According to the Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey, Talarico leads Crockett 47% to 38% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 15% still undecided and less than two months remaining before the March 3 primary. The poll sampled 413 likely Democratic voters statewide.
Among all registered voters surveyed, Black Texans made up 12.3% of respondents, while Hispanic or Latino voters accounted for 22.3%. Within those demographics, Crockett continues to dominate among Black voters, securing 80% support, while Talarico performs better with white voters (57%) and Hispanic voters (59%).
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted clear gender divides in the race. Men favor Talarico by a wide margin, 52% to 30%, while women are nearly evenly split, with Talarico at 44% and Crockett at 43%.
Crockett has consistently argued that her path to victory depends on expanding the electorate rather than competing solely for habitual primary voters. Speaking recently on The View, she emphasized Texas’s low voter participation and its majority-minority population, noting that more than four million Black people live in the state—more than in any other.
Former Texas Democratic Party executive director Jamarr Brown urged caution in interpreting the latest numbers. He described Crockett’s support among Black voters as a positive sign that the party’s base is engaged, while also warning that the poll reflects a limited universe of likely voters.
“These are people who have voted in one or more recent Democratic primaries,” Brown said, adding that both campaigns are targeting new and nontraditional voters who are not fully captured in polling models.
Brown also pointed out that the survey does not account for Crockett’s outreach efforts across the state, particularly among voters who have historically been disengaged from primary elections.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face the Republican nominee on Nov. 5 for a U.S. Senate seat Texas Democrats have not held in more than three decades. If elected, Crockett would become the first Black woman to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate.
