Texas GOP Senate Primary Turns Hostile, Threatening Republican Hold on Key Seat
The Texas Republican Senate primary is shaping up to be one of the most volatile races of the 2026 election cycle—and GOP leaders are sounding the alarm. A new poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund shows Sen. John Cornyn trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton by 16 points in a GOP primary, and even worse, Paxton losing a hypothetical general election by one point to Democrat Colin Allred.
With control of the Senate at stake, Republicans worry that a brutal and expensive intra-party fight in deep-red Texas could drain resources and create an opening for Democrats to flip a seat that hasn’t gone blue since 1994.
GOP Infighting Sparks Fears of a Repeat Alabama Scenario
“This is a five-alarm fire,” one unnamed GOP strategist told The Hill. The strategist warned that Paxton could be the one candidate who puts the seat “for sure” at risk. The concern echoes past Republican losses in red states, like Alabama’s 2017 special election, where Roy Moore lost to Democrat Doug Jones following a divisive GOP primary and scandal.
Cornyn’s Record, Paxton’s Baggage, and Trump’s Silence
Cornyn has faced backlash from conservative grassroots groups, particularly after supporting the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act following the Uvalde school shooting. Though state party leaders now call him “an ally,” Cornyn was booed at the Texas GOP convention and censured by his local party in 2022.
Paxton, on the other hand, brings significant legal baggage—ranging from past securities fraud charges to impeachment by the Texas House. Still, his MAGA alignment and close ties to Trump make him a formidable primary threat.
So far, Trump has not endorsed in the race. Cornyn’s office released a memo highlighting that he voted with Trump over 99% of the time, but grassroots conservatives remain skeptical.
The Colin Allred Factor
Democrat Colin Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights attorney, is viewed as a strong general election candidate. In head-to-head polling, he leads Paxton by 1 point, while trailing Cornyn narrowly. Allred has already taken shots at both Republicans, calling Paxton “uniquely harmful” and accusing Cornyn of abandoning his principles to cling to power.
Could Wesley Hunt Disrupt the Race?
Adding more unpredictability to the primary is Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is considering a run. A recent poll shows Hunt pulling 19% in a three-way race with Cornyn and Paxton—and beating Allred by four points in a general election. Hunt remains undecided but told The Hill he’s “keeping all options open.”
GOP Leaders Worry Texas Could Turn
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has set an ambitious goal of flipping Democratic seats and expanding the GOP’s majority. But insiders warn that if the Texas primary becomes a costly battle between Paxton and Cornyn, the state could become a distraction—or worse, a loss.
“Cornyn can’t win a primary and Paxton puts the seat at risk,” said one GOP strategist. “That’s a horrific outcome.”
For now, donors and strategists are watching closely—and waiting to see whether Trump’s eventual endorsement will stabilize or further upend the race.
