A New Reconmr/Siena Poll Shows Gina Hinojosa at 49% and Gov. Greg Abbott at 45% Among Likely Texas Voters
A new statewide poll shows Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa leading Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by four percentage points, a notable shift in a Texas governor’s race that several recent surveys have shown to be competitive.
The ReconMR/Siena poll released Thursday found Hinojosa at 49% and Abbott at 45% among 614 likely Texas voters. Another 2% selected another candidate and 4% were undecided or declined to answer. The survey was conducted Sept. 8-11 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. Because the four-point difference is within that margin, the poll does not establish a statistically definitive leader.
Hinojosa Moves From One Point Behind to Four Points Ahead
The result represents a five-point shift in the margin from the previous ReconMR survey conducted July 27-30. That poll showed Abbott at 46% and Hinojosa at 45% among 619 likely voters.
Other recent public polling has produced different results. An AARP survey conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 1 showed Abbott leading 49% to 46%, while a Televisa/Univision survey conducted Aug. 27-Sept. 4 had the candidates tied at 47%. Earlier August polling from the University of Texas and Emerson College showed Abbott ahead.
The differing results underscore that a single poll represents a snapshot of a particular sample rather than a prediction of the Nov. 3 election.
Independents and Latino Voters Shift Toward Hinojosa
The ReconMR/Siena survey showed substantial advantages for Hinojosa among several groups.
Among independent and other-party voters, Hinojosa led Abbott by 38 points. She also led among Latino voters by 33 points, 65% to 32%, according to the poll’s demographic breakdown.
Abbott maintained advantages among white voters and voters without a college degree, while Hinojosa led among Black voters and college graduates.
The survey also found Hinojosa with stronger overall favorability numbers. Siena reported that voters viewed both candidates as qualified and in touch with Texas values, while majorities described Hinojosa as honest and authentic.
Voters Split on Major Texas Issues
The candidates held advantages on different issues.
According to Siena, respondents were more likely to choose Hinojosa when asked who would do a better job addressing affordability and managing Texas’ water supply. Abbott held advantages on border security and public safety.
The Hinojosa campaign highlighted additional findings showing voters preferred her on lowering prices, 51% to 44%, managing the state’s water supply, 49% to 43%, and opposition to Flock license-plate-reader cameras, 55% to 44%.
Hinojosa Campaign Points to Momentum
Hinojosa’s campaign characterized the poll as evidence that its message is gaining traction as the election approaches.
“We built this campaign together, and together we’re going to win. Don’t let them tell you it can’t happen in Texas, because it already is,” Hinojosa said in a statement released with the poll.
“My message of securing the American Dream by saving Texas schools and putting money in Texans’ pockets is resonating with voters,” she said.
The campaign also emphasized the candidates’ large fundraising and spending disparity. Public reporting has shown Abbott entering the final stretch of the campaign with a substantially larger financial operation than Hinojosa. The Hinojosa campaign says Abbott has spent approximately $39 million during the past year compared with approximately $3 million by Hinojosa. The Wall Street Journal recently reported Abbott had roughly $67 million in campaign funds compared with approximately $3 million for Hinojosa.
The latest survey adds another data point to a governor’s race in which public polls have varied considerably. With the Nov. 3 election approaching, subsequent surveys will show whether the movement measured by ReconMR/Siena is sustained across multiple polls.
