Separate Fox News and Texas Public Opinion Research Surveys Place Talarico Ahead, With Independents and Unsettled Republican Voters Creating Problems for Paxton
Two new polls show Democrat James Talarico narrowly leading Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, with both surveys pointing to dissatisfaction with Paxton among independents and a meaningful share of Republican voters.
A Fox News poll found Talarico ahead of Paxton 51% to 48%, a three-point advantage that falls within the survey’s margin of error.
Days earlier, Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico leading 45% to 40%, with 14% of likely voters still undecided. That five-point advantage also fell within the poll’s margin of error.
Neither poll establishes Talarico as the clear favorite. Together, however, they show a race that remains far closer than Texas’ recent Republican voting history would suggest.
They also identify similar weaknesses for Paxton: unusually low support among independents, incomplete consolidation of Republican voters and concerns about his personal character.
Independent Voters Give Talarico an Opening
The strongest point of agreement between the two polls involves independent voters.
In the Fox News poll, Talarico led Paxton 68% to 29% among independents. The Texas Public Opinion Research survey also gave Talarico a commanding advantage with the group, placing him ahead 54% to 20%.
Those margins are significant because independents have not consistently supported Democrats by such wide margins in recent statewide Texas elections.
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, for example, carried independent voters while defeating Democrat Colin Allred in 2024, according to exit polling cited by The Texas Tribune.
The results suggest Talarico’s overall advantage is being driven partly by voters who are not firmly attached to either major party. They also indicate that Paxton has not yet benefited from the level of independent support Republicans typically need to maintain their statewide advantage.
Talarico’s campaign promoted the Fox News results as confirmation that the Austin state representative has a viable path to victory.
“This confirms what we’ve seen on the ground and in poll after poll: James can win Texas this November,” the campaign said.
The campaign also warned that the results could prompt wealthy Republican donors and outside groups to spend more money supporting Paxton.
“This lead in a Fox News poll is going to put an even bigger target on us,” the email said. “The billionaires who want to defeat us are going to spend even more propping up Ken Paxton.”
Those statements represent the campaign’s interpretation of the polling and its fundraising message rather than an independent assessment of the race.
Paxton Has Not Fully Consolidated Republicans
The Texas Public Opinion Research poll found Talarico winning 7% of self-described Republicans, while another 12% of GOP voters remained undecided.
Only 1% of Democrats supported Paxton, with 6% undecided.
That imbalance suggests Talarico has consolidated Democratic voters more fully than Paxton has united Republicans after the attorney general’s contentious primary fight with U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
A June New York Times and Siena College poll, which showed the race tied at 47%, found Talarico receiving 5% of Republican support and only 4% of GOP voters undecided.
The larger undecided Republican share in the Texas Public Opinion Research poll may provide Paxton with room to grow. The same survey found that 19% of all undecided voters leaned toward Paxton, compared with 10% who leaned toward Talarico. About two-thirds said they remained completely undecided.
Republicans have argued that conservative voters will return to Paxton as the primary recedes and the general election campaign focuses more heavily on Talarico’s positions on social and economic issues.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report continues to rate the race “Lean Republican,” reflecting Texas’ long history of supporting GOP candidates in statewide contests.
Poll Finds Unexpected Shift Among Non-College Voters
One of the most surprising findings came from the Texas Public Opinion Research survey’s breakdown of voters without four-year college degrees.
Talarico led Paxton among those voters 45% to 36%, a nine-point advantage.
That represents a major departure from recent voting patterns. Cruz defeated Allred by 18 points among Texas voters without college degrees in 2024. Even during Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s narrow loss to Cruz in 2018, Cruz carried the group by six points.
The result also differs sharply from other polling of the current race.
A New York Times and Siena College poll gave Paxton an eight-point advantage among voters without degrees. Texas Public Opinion Research’s previous survey, conducted in May, showed Paxton leading the group by 21 points.
That makes the latest education split an important result to watch, but one that should not be treated as evidence of a permanent shift without confirmation from additional polling.
The poll found Talarico leading by one point among voters with at least a bachelor’s degree.
Black and Latino Voters Back Talarico
The Texas Public Opinion Research poll found substantial racial divisions in the race.
Black voters supported Talarico 71% to 8%, while Latino voters favored him 66% to 20%.
Related: James Talarico Defends Jasmine Crockett as He Works to Earn Black Voters’ Trust
Paxton led among white voters 53% to 33%.
The results show Talarico assembling a coalition built around Black and Latino voters, independents and some Republicans who remain unconvinced about Paxton.
Whether that coalition is large enough to overcome Texas’ underlying Republican advantage may depend on turnout and whether Paxton can regain voters currently describing themselves as undecided.
Character Questions Could Define the Race
The Fox News poll found that 59% of voters believed Paxton lacked the personal character needed to serve as a U.S. senator.
That concern extended beyond Democratic voters. Thirty-six percent of Republicans agreed with the statement.
By comparison, 47% of voters expressed concern that Talarico was too politically extreme.
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Paxton also received a net-negative favorability rating in the Fox News survey, with 45% viewing him favorably and 51% viewing him unfavorably. Talarico was viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 43%.
The findings suggest Republican attacks on Talarico’s political positions may compete with voter concerns about Paxton’s conduct and fitness for office.
Both candidates’ supporters nevertheless said policy mattered more than personality when deciding how to vote.
Different Polls, Similar Warning Signs
Texas Public Opinion Research surveyed 1,048 likely voters from July 15 through July 17. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The organization describes itself as nonpartisan but is directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford.
Its sample included 53% of respondents who said they voted for Donald Trump in 2024 and 42% who voted for Kamala Harris. Trump won Texas by approximately 14 percentage points that year, meaning the poll’s sample was somewhat less Republican than the state’s actual 2024 electorate.
The Fox News poll surveyed 1,006 registered voters from July 23 through July 27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. It was conducted jointly by Beacon Research, which works with Democratic clients, and Shaw & Company Research, which works with Republican clients.
The difference between registered-voter and likely-voter samples is important. Registered-voter polls measure a broader group, while likely-voter surveys attempt to identify people most expected to participate in the election.
Despite those methodological differences, both surveys reached the same general conclusion: Talarico holds a narrow advantage, but the race remains statistically competitive.
The Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows a larger undecided population and an unusual shift among non-college voters. The Fox News poll shows a more consolidated electorate but deeper concerns about Paxton’s character.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection in 1988, and Democrats have not won any statewide Texas office since 1994.
Those historical barriers remain substantial. But two consecutive polls showing Talarico ahead indicate Paxton cannot rely solely on Texas’ Republican history to carry him through November.
The numbers show a state that remains Republican-leaning, but a Senate race that is no longer behaving like a routine Republican victory.
